Sunday 20 November 2011

Spain's new government - for now

Congratulations to new Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain's "People's Party" on ousting the Socialists and winning a decisive victory. The question is: will it make a difference?

In Italy and Greece democratically elected leaders have been booted out by bureaucrats in Brussels because the European elite didn't like their policies. In both cases Berlusconi and Papandreou have been replaced by what the media have coined 'technocrats'.

It is symbolic - if not indicative - of the EU that democracy can be so subverted in the interest of a project. The Euro project: the project that failed.

Austerity measures will follow in both Spain, as they have in Italy and Greece. Now in times of yore, when the IMF parachuted in to rescue countries like this they would impose austerity measures but balance it with the promise of devaluing the currency and making it more competitive. But of course with the Euro that's not possible. the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) should never have been allowed to join the Euro since they patently lacked the fiscal and monetary discipline. They didn't play by the rules (of deficit, etc). But they were allowed to join anyway!

Now the hubris. The PIIGS are trapped in the Euro straightjacket and there are no good options. Default and withdrawal from the Euro seems the least bad option; then the Euro can revert to what it was really designed for : Germany, France plus the Benelux countries. Keeping out of the Euro has saved Britain from even greater financial disaster but we are so exposed to the bad debt of the PIIGS that we won't get away with it. And who knows, could France be next?

So enjoy your victory, Senor Rajoy. Just make sure you do what your masters in Brussels do. Otherwise you'll be out on your ear.