The drama of Obama

Barack Hussein Obama has won the 2008 US Presidential election and will be the 44th President. Congratulations to him - my American friend in Seattle is ecstatic, as are many others. I wish him well.


There is a level of hype - even hysteria - around Barack which only the election of JFK seems to compare with. To be fair there is no denying the cultural significance of his victory. Just 150 years ago a man like him would have been considered the personal property of his white owner; just 50 years ago many states would not have allowed him to sit on a bus seat designated for his white neighbour. And yet here he is, the Commander-in-Chief. It is also a rebuke some here n the UK who insisted that America was not 'ready' to elect a black man, and that white America would abandon him in the privacy of the polling booth.How close do they think that Britain is to having a black Prime Minister?

Of course it would be impolite - churlish even - to suggest that Obama only won because of the colour of his money rather than the colour of his skin. Or that his victory probably has as much to do with the present incumbent of The White House as its next resident. Or that, like Bill Clinton, the economic climate gave him an advantage. That's the past, after all. But the past informs the present. And once the hullabaloo of Obama's win gives way to the unpleasant business of the day job we will see that there are strong grounds to lower our expectations.



Obama didn't achieve much as Senator for Illinois. He never really ran anything of note. But he was known for his consistent opposition to the Iraq war. That would have made him an instant winner in Europe, but the USA isn't Europe. In fact until the economy displaced Iraq as voters' number one concern Obama was trailing McCain in the polls. It's easy to be anti-war when you don't have to make any hard decisions and people's lives don't depend on you. But Obama's desire to quit Iraq looks precipitous at best, foolish at worst. US troops will have to leave eventually. But to do so before the Iraqi Government has the stability and force of arms to govern without US support risks that government collapsing or being overthrown . Civil war could even erupt, with the victor being simply a Saddam version 2.0, and we're back to where we started. It will all have been for nothing. Any weakness on the part of the legitimate, democratically-elected government there will leave Iran as the dominant power in the country, which some people think it already is. So Obama's 'quit Iraq' strategy is naive, and his generals will probably tell him this, if they haven't already. In short, don't expect any significant improvement in Iraq in the short-term just because Obama has taken charge.



On Afghanistan Obama is more hawkish. He wants more troops and is threatening Pakistan with military action. The struggle in central Asia is as much for the soul of Pakistan as Afghanistan and nothing would do more to turn Pakistan to extremism than to carry out punitive raids there. We have to help the Pakistan government, not sign its death certificate. Obama may be blundering if he carries out his threats.

On Iran, by contrast, Obama is of a peace-loving hippie than even the Swiss could ever hope to be. Or at least that's the image he seems to want to project. His stated desire to talk to the Iranians without preconditions could be a bold and imaginative move...or he could find himself made a fool out of as the theocracy there (just a reminder that's it's NOT a democracy) ignores him and builds a nuclear weapon. Even the EU countries who shuddered as George Bush's sabre-rattling are getting nervous at Obama's conciliatory stance. Reaching out to enemies who hate you is fine, as long as you can find common ground. But I fear that this approach could leave him acting like Jimmy Carter did in Iran, as opposed to how Richard Nixon reached out to China.

Then we come to the economy. Sooner or later the penny will drop and people will realise that Obama has as few options open to him as the outgoing Administration. His early campaign promises about universal healthcare, green technology and tax cuts for 95% of Americans seem to have been quietly forgotten. But these are all crushingly expensive, and with the massive Wall St bailout, the huge $10 trillion debt and a few wars on the go, any action he takes will be severely constrained. The turning point of the Presidential campaign was McCain's ill-advised utterance that the fundamentals of the US economy were 'sound'. Obama just stayed tight-lipped and said little. He played it safe, but people mistook non-committal for calm. Not saying the wrong thing is a lot easier than saying the right thing. Unless America wants more debt, the level of spending is going to have to be slashed, as it is right across the world, and Obama (if he is smart) must know that.

So yes let's celebrate the renewing of passion in American politics, the rehabilitation of America's international reputation and possibly the arrival of a 21st Century cultural icon. But don't expect world peace, the solving of the credit crisis and cars that run on water overnight. Welcome to the real world, Obama.