2010 Election debate 1 - Review

Just watched the first ever live TV debate between the main party leaders for a British general election. Here is the review.
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Extraordinary opening statement from Cameron, praising Labour for things they had done – without specifying them! He also decided to play the ‘honesty’ card by apologising unilaterally for the expenses scandal, thereby drawing attention to it and automatically associating the scandal with the Tories. I think his strategy backfired. It felt forced.

The first topic was immigration. Cameron made a cringing reference to a ‘black man’ who came up to him in Exeter telling him how there were too many foreigners here. Clegg talked about ‘good’ and ‘bad’ immigration. I don’t think it’s that…black and white. It’s more complex than that. Brown always struggling because (unlike the other two) as he has a record to defend, and there is a wide consensus that the immigration system is in chaos. Only Clegg focussed on the ‘points’ system, presumably similar to the one Australia has – he sounded the most convincing. Cameron tied it in to the welfare system, hinting at the feeling a lot of people have about foreigners ‘scrounging’ benefits. It sounded a little unpleasant. But I think Cameron nailed Clegg on his unrealistic idea of restricting immigrants to just one region of the UK.

Verdict: Cameron has blown this one. Clegg > Brown > Cameron

Law and Order. Cameron talked about cutting paperwork, which doesn’t wash any more. Clegg talked about ‘more police on our streets’, which sounds simplistic of course. But he linked it with ID cards, which was smart. Brown was able to point to falling crime, so he was on surer ground here. Trouble is, no matter how low crime is people will always feel that ‘something needs to be done’. Cameron mentions drug rehabilitation, but it felt too much like a cliché. Clegg wanted to talk about early intervention which to me felt like he had a better grasp of how to change people’s behaviour. Brown challenged Cameron’s police funding quite effectively and got in a few lousy quips about Cameron’s airbrushed posters and Ashcroft’s funding. It sounded horribly rehearsed and childish - and hypocritical.

Verdict: Good ideas from Clegg, good defence from Brown. Clegg > Brown > Cameron

MPs expenses. All 3 of them fell over themselves to condemn duck houses etc. Brown demanded reform of the political system – but why hasn’t he reformed it over the last 13 years? Cameron talked incessantly about ‘cuts’, which actually goes down well when the topic is MPs. Clegg highlighted that the Lib Dems wanted the most far-reaching reforms which Labour and the Tories opposed. Cameron pointed out, yet again, that Labour has had a long time to reform things. Clegg was at a natural (and unfair) advantage yet again with his image as the outside maverick.

Verdict: Dead heat between Cameron and Clegg. Brown in 3rd place.

Education. The young questioner said that pupils were over-tested. Cameron couldn’t resist banging on about his kid at state school – a little too much. Cameron wanted to ‘set schools free’, and condemned bureaucracy. Clegg agreed, which began to sound like a ganging up on Brown. Clegg wanted an ‘education freedom act’, which sounds grand. Brown tried to defend Labour’s record, saying that underperforming schools should be taken over. Cameron got in first with the discipline argument, scoring valuable points. Clegg wanted smaller class sizes – but who doesn’t? Everyone knows that costs money, and money is something we don’t have much of. So I didn’t rate his argument. Brown wanted to paint the Tories as the party that cuts education; Cameron countered smartly with a reference to the NI increase, but Brown’s attacks about cuts struck home quite well. I couldn’t understand why Cameron and Clegg didn’t expose Labour’s appalling record on educational standards – 1 in 3 state schools ‘inadequate’ according to OFSTED. But hey, I wasn’t on the stage!

Verdict: Brown shades it because of his offensive posture. Brown > Cameron > Clegg

Budget Deficit. The big one. Cameron focussed yet again on the NI increase and NHS waste. Trouble is, the British people are cynical about savings through efficiencies. Brown talked about the ‘terrible’ recession and argued for Keynesian state intervention, trying to scare people with a ‘double dip’ recession. Clegg sounded more realistic about efficiency savings. He mentioned a banking tax, so brownie points there. Talking of Brownie points….Brown highlighted that the Tories are quite internationally isolated on wanting to pull back state spending. Cameron went for Clegg on his £17bn tax cut. Good to see the Lib Dems being challenged, for once! Good point from Cameron that Labour want to spend now and compensate by taxing later; he also mentioned (twice) the 100 business leaders who had backed him. I couldn’t understand why Clegg or Cameron didn’t skewer Brown on his mishandling of the nation’s finance or challenge him on his failure on banking regulation.

Verdict: incredibly, Brown did very well. Brown > Clegg > Cameron

Defence. A question on under-resourced troops. Cue a love-fest from all three on ‘our boys’, it sounded like resources were no issue. I was waiting to see who would discuss whether the troops should even be here, and what the strategy is. Brown was the one who did so, and also talked about an exit strategy. Blunder from the other two in waiting too long to do the same. Cameron wanted a ‘defence review’. Why doesn’t he smash into Brown because of his under-funding of the forces? Is he scared of sounding too mean and nasty? Suddenly Cameron raises the ‘helicopter deficit’. Maybe he's heard me, but it’s too little, too late.
Clegg wants to kill off Trident, again – but the other two ask what if the world changes and we suddenly need it?

Verdict: Brown sounded the most statesman-like. Brown > Cameron > Clegg

Health. Brown promises free health checkups, cancer specialists to see you within 2 weeks, GPs in the evenings. Cameron praises the NHS perhaps a little bit too much, then promises year-on-year increases and cancer drugs available regardless of cost. Clegg slightly mocks Cameron’s love affair with the NHS. Great point from Clegg on the Government’s IT failures in the NHS. Brown highlights the Tories’ difference on spending guarantees between the NHS and other departments. Clegg clever to point out that the Conservatives sound incredible when they say that spending can be increased on the NHS while NI increases are delayed while the deficit is simultaneously cut. Suddenly the direction changes into a debate on the LibDems £10k tax threshold. Whoever is right, they are debating a Lib Dem policy, so Clegg has to be pleased with that.

Verdict: Cameron sounds unrealistic to me, and people remember the much longer waiting lists under the Tories. Brown > Clegg > Cameron

Elderly Care. Cameron guarantees residential care for people who have saved a certain amount. Clegg wants to work together with the other parties. Brown tries to move to a longer-term solution, saying he’s setting up a commission. Cameron focuses on staying at home rather than going to homes and wants to give breaks to carers. It sounds good. Clegg agrees on carers.

Verdict: for once, Cameron did well. Cameron > Clegg > Brown

Finishing statements.
Clegg very optimistic, I could almost see him looking in to the sunlit uplands. Brown did a bit better by going back to big questions – how much state injection does the economy need, what is the level of spending. Then he laid into Cameron’s plans. Cameron for his part actually said ‘choose hope over fear’, which was so cheesy it was like a fondue. That only works in America. I think he made a huge mistake by not savaging Brown’s record on anything.

One thing that struck me in this debate is that the candidate who got in first with an argument tended to leave the other 2 trailing, even if the others agreed with him. Thus Brown won the defence debate because he talked about the strategy in Afghanistan first; Cameron won the elderly care debate because he was first off the block with talking about looking after carers. Clegg really loved this debate because this was his chance to finally appear on a level playing field with the main parties. I feel that Cameron fluffed it by not going after Brown’s record of economic mismanagement, which is utterly shocking by any standards. I couldn’t understand it. I know the Tories don’t want to be ‘the nasty party’ but you need killer one-liners in a debate like this. Cameron didn’t seem to want to highlight the UK’s failures in education, defence, or anything else. Nothing about the banking regulatory failure either.

Brown by contrast had a much more offensive stance, attacking Cameron (but not Clegg) and thereby deflecting attention away from his own record. Brown was dogged in his line that spending should not be cut. It was an effective tactic to have a clear theme running through the whole debate. Clegg only partly made the most of his unique position as something of an outsider. Easier for him to attack everyone else, he has less to defend. He did well in parts when he positioned himself above the fray but he frequently found himself challenged, such as on Trident. Nonetheless he was coherent and backed up his arguments very well; and it was a good move to name-check every one of the questioners. Sure, Clegg was the most polished and assured, the best speaker and the smoothest communicator – by some way. A little like Blair. But I’m focussing here on what they actually said, and how powerfully they put their arguments.

A lot of it was horribly rehearsed. Brown tried to neutralised Clegg as an alternative to Labour by constantly trying to agree with him. Cameron tried to be apologetic all the time to appear honest, but I thought it just made him look weak. Clegg benefitted the most, no doubt about it. But his tactic of trying to stand above the fray began to get very tiresome for me. We all know he’s still a politician with an agenda and he couldn’t keep pretending to be something totally different to the other two. Brown is a poor communicator, boring and uninspiring, but he had a game-plan he stuck to rigidly: we need to keep the financial stimulus and the Tories will cut public services more. Simple and effective. He made Cameron uncomfortable with his jibes about Lord Ashcroft and airbrushed posters. Cameron relied too much on personal anecdotes I felt, and didn’t sound credible by banging on about National Insurance. The public knows that it's a drop in the ocean, really.

Stop Press: I’ve just watched, on Newsnight, a claim that Brown used statistics on immigration and policing that were false, so much so that the Advertising Standards Agency made Labour withdraw adverts with the claims. So Brown lied – should we be surprised?

Overall verdict: Amazingly, I thought Brown won it. I certainly didn’t expect that. Clegg also benefited a lot from just being there. Cameron could have done a lot, lot better.

Final Result: Brown > Clegg > Cameron.